Case Study
3 min read

Transition risk: general confusion about the stress test

Institutional investors, increasingly mature in 2020, are experimenting massively with prospective scenario analyses but often confuse them with stress tests.
Written by
WeeFin
Published on
15/10/2020

The Covid-19 crisis highlighted the importance of combating climate change. Containment measures taken in most countries brought activity to a standstill for several months, resulting in a significant drop in CO2 emissions worldwide. Between January 1 and April 30, carbon emissions were 8.5% lower than in 2019. However, the drop in CO2 emissions over the year would be just enough to keep within the limits of 1.5°C global warming by 2100 (Novethic, 2020[1]).

There is still a long way to go to meet the threshold set by the Paris Agreement. Transition risk assessment is therefore a key measure in the climate strategy of institutional investors, to manage the financial impacts resulting from the effects of implementing a low-carbon trajectory.

Through an in-depth study of institutional investors' climate reports published in the context of Article 173 of the French Ecological and Energy Transition Act, we have noted this year a greater willingness on the part of institutional investors to take into account the transition risk to which the assets making up their portfolios are exposed. In the 2019 financial year, 25 of the 32 institutional investors we analyzed mentioned that they were taking transition risk into account in their strategy, i.e. twice as many as last year.

Our study reveals that :

  • While there is a broad consensus on the definition of transition risks, the tools and methods developed by organizations remain highly heterogeneous.
  • No consensus has been reached among the panel's investors on a common valuation method. 13 of the panel's investors use snapshot metrics to measure transition risk, such as carbon intensity, green share or brown share, while 11 others analyze this risk from a forward-looking perspective, using climate scenarios and stress tests.
  • Only 4 investors actually carry out stress-testing, and many confuse this notion with scenario analysis. Several reports use the two terms interchangeably, leading to widespread confusion . This confusion does not allow players to really grasp the full range of risks associated with the various possible low-carbon transition trajectories.

Last month we carried out a study on how to take physical risk into account. physical risk by institutional investors. The following study focuses on the second family of climate risks, namely transition risks.

[1] Novethic, 2020, the drop inCO2 emissions due to covid-19 should be repeated every year to reach our climate targets.

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